Amphos 21 Santiago Chile

Background

Santiago de Chile is located at an elevation of 570 m above sea level.

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Fig. 13 Location of the Amphos21 office in Santiago de Chile.

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Fig. 14 Detailed location of the Amphos21 office in Santiago de Chile.

Natural risk past events

No climate-related past events or special adaptation measures have been reported from the Santiago de Chile office.

Current Baseline

The climate of Santiago de Chile can be considered almost Mediterranean, since winters (June to August) are mild and relatively rainy, and summers (December to February) are warm and sunny. However, the rainy period is short, so the climate is arid. Also, summer nights are cool, and sometimes even cold, due to the altitude.

The eastern districts of the city, in addition to being a little colder due to the altitude, are a little more rainy, in fact rainfall exceeds 350 mm per year.

In winter, the temperature range is often considerable, and at night the temperature can drop below freezing. In addition, fog can form in periods of stable weather. Snow in Santiago is very rare, however, occasionally, a snowfall can occur, especially in the eastern districts of the city. In summer, nights are cool, but it can be very hot during the day.

Table 16 Climate data for Santiago (1970–2000). Source: WorldClim data website

Variable

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Year

Minimum temperature (°C)

13.8

12.9

10.9

8.1

5.7

3.8

2.9

4.0

5.7

8.2

10.3

12.5

8.4

Maximum temperature (°C)

29.6

28.5

26.2

22.4

17.9

14.2

14.3

16.0

18.6

21.8

25.7

28.5

20.2

Average temperature (°C)

21.7

20.7

18.5

15.3

11.8

9.0

8.6

10.0

12.1

15.0

18.0

20.5

15.4

Precipitation (mm)

2.0

4.0

6.0

19.0

71.0

92.0

84.0

69.0

32.0

19.0

8.0

4.0

410.0

Santiago presents a high (40%-80%) water stress and a medium-high drought risk. The probability of fire risk is low with an Active Fires Frequency of 0.0097 fires per year between 2003-2021. The facility is located in an area close to water streams, it is exposed to river floodings. No landslide risk is expected in the Santiago de Chile area.

The facility is located on an active tectonic plate and it is exposed to a very strong earthquake risk.

Santiago is not located close to the sea at an elevation of 570 m and it is not exposed to coastal flooding and tropical cyclones risk.

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Fig. 15 Present-day water stress in Santiago. Source: Aqueduct.

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Fig. 16 Present-day drought in Santiago de Chile. Source: Aqueduct.

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Fig. 17 Present-day flood hazard in a 25 years return period in Santiago. The values are expected water level high in meters. The return period indicates that the flood of this magnitude is expected once every 25 years. Source: GAR Atlas global flood.

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Fig. 18 Present-day flood hazard in a 100 years return period in Santiago. The values are expected water level high in meters. The return period indicates that the flood of this magnitude is expected once every 100 years. Source: GAR Atlas global flood.

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Fig. 19 Present-day flood hazard in a 250 years return period in Santiago. The values are expected water levels high in meters. The return period indicates that a flood of this magnitude is expected once every 250 years. Source: GAR Atlas global flood.

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Fig. 20 Present-day frequency of landslides triggered by precipitation measured in expected annual probability and percentage of pixel of occurrence of a potentially destructive landslide event x 1000000. Source Global Assessment Report.

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Fig. 21 Tropical cyclones frequency in events per year is an estimate of the tropical cyclone frequency of Saffir-Simpson category 5. Source: IBTrACS processed by UNEP/GRID-Geneva.

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Fig. 22 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) (cm/s2) in a 475 years return period earthquake in Santiago de Chile.

Projected Hazards

The baseline and projected future averaged value of each CID analyzed for this site is presented in the following table. The future projected values for years 2030 and 2050 are displayed for scenario RCP2.6 (green path) and RCP8.5 (unrestricted growth). The temporal evolution of the CID and the mean value for each time period are displayed by clicking on the CID name. Each climate-related hazard is evaluated in a specific section.

Table 17 Climate Hazard Related Variables

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Units

Historical

2030 | 2.6

2030 | 8.5

2050 | 2.6

2050 | 8.5

Source

Aridity index

[-]

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.5

CMIP6

Consecutive dry days

days

78.2

69.1

65.9

77.7

79.8

CEI

Consecutive wet days

days

8.1

6.8

7.0

7.1

7.2

CEI

Daily maximum near surface air temperature

°C

16.1

17.6

17.8

18.3

19.7

CMIP6

Daily maximum near surface air temperature (bc)

°C

20.2

21.7

21.9

22.5

23.8

CMIP6

Daily minimum near surface air temperature

°C

1.6

3.0

3.2

3.8

5.0

CMIP6

Daily minimum near surface air temperature (bc)

°C

8.4

9.8

10.1

10.6

11.8

CMIP6

Diurnal temperature range

°C

14.5

14.6

14.6

14.5

14.7

CEI

Evaporation including sublimation and transpiration

mm yr-1

369.5

368.3

361.6

375.9

362.0

CMIP6

Frost days

days

114.1

78.7

73.5

61.6

40.1

CEI

Growing season length

days

276.7

299.9

297.8

307.7

329.8

CEI

Heavy precipitation days

days

25.5

26.3

27.6

27.8

27.2

CEI

Ice days

days

10.3

5.7

5.1

3.5

1.8

CEI

Maximum 1 day precipitation

mm

66.1

70.7

71.4

72.2

79.9

CEI

Maximum 5 day precipitation

mm

157.5

175.7

171.1

185.0

184.4

CEI

Maximum value of daily maximum temperature

°C

33.3

34.3

34.5

35.0

35.6

CEI

Maximum value of daily minimum temperature

°C

14.4

15.5

15.7

16.1

16.9

CEI

Minimum value of daily maximum temperature

°C

-3.0

-1.9

-1.5

-1.2

-0.4

CEI

Minimum value of daily minimum temperature

°C

-18.1

-15.4

-14.9

-15.5

-12.3

CEI

Near surface air temperature

°C

8.4

9.9

10.1

10.6

11.8

CMIP6

Near surface air temperature (bc)

°C

15.4

16.8

17.1

17.6

18.8

CMIP6

Near surface wind speed

m s-1

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

CMIP6

Number of wet days

days

59.8

62.4

62.6

61.1

59.4

CEI

Precipitation

mm yr-1

845.2

924.5

939.4

948.3

914.4

CMIP6

Precipitation (bc)

mm yr-1

410.0

448.4

455.6

460.0

443.6

CMIP6

Simple daily intensity index

mm d-1

13.3

14.0

14.0

15.0

14.6

CEI

Summer days

days

69.2

94.0

100.4

105.9

129.6

CEI

Total wet day precipitation

mm

820.3

898.0

913.5

922.2

888.9

CEI

Total wet day precipitation (bc)

mm

397.9

435.6

443.1

447.3

431.2

CEI

Tropical nights

days

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

CEI

Very heavy precipitation days

days

13.8

15.5

15.5

16.0

15.0

CEI

CIDs with the (bc) suffix correspond to the biased corrected variables. The bias factors and corrections applied are described in the next table. Notice that the model deviation is relevant so modelled data should be taken with care, more as a trend than as a reliable value.

Table 18 Climate Hazard Related Variables

Climate Impact-Driver

Modelled

Observed

Deviation

Factor

Delta

Daily maximum near surface air temperature

16.05

20.20

-20.53 %

4.15 °C

Daily minimum near surface air temperature

1.57

8.40

-81.35 %

6.83 °C

Near surface air temperature

8.43

15.40

-45.25 %

6.97 °C

Precipitation

845.25

410.00

106.16 %

0.49 [-]

Mean temperature

The projected increase in mean temperature is above 9% by 2030 and between 14% and 22% by 2050. This is considered to be a large increase in temperature.

Table 19 projected mean temperature change

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Historical

2030 | 2.6 change

2030 | 8.5 change

2050 | 2.6 change

2050 | 8.5 change

Source

Near surface air temperature (bc)

15.4 °C

Increase
(9.3%)

Large Increase
(10.8%)

Large Increase
(14.2%)

Large Increase
(22.0%)

CMIP6

Extreme Heat

CIDs associated with extreme heat events increase largely for both time periods and scenarios. Considering the current climate of Santiago de Chile, it is possible to become a significant hazard in the future.

Table 20 projected extreme heat CIDs change

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Historical

2030 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2030 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

2050 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2050 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

Source

Daily maximum near surface air temperature (bc)

20.2 °C

Increase
(7.5%)

Increase
(8.6%)

Large Increase
(11.2%)

Large Increase
(18.0%)

CMIP6

Summer days

69.2 days

Large Increase
(35.9%)

Large Increase
(45.1%)

Large Increase
(53.2%)

Large Increase
(87.3%)

CEI

Tropical nights

0.0 days

No Change
(0.0%)

No Change
(0.0%)

No Change
(0.0%)

No Change
(0.0%)

CEI

Cold spells and frosts

Santiago de Chile suffers currently relatively frequent cold spells and frosts hazard episodes. It is projected that they will decrease largely in the future due to the increase of temperatures.

Table 21 projected cold spells and frosts CIDs change

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Historical

2030 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2030 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

2050 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2050 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

Source

Frost days

114.1 days

Large Decrease
(-31.1%)

Large Decrease
(-35.6%)

Large Decrease
(-46.0%)

Large Decrease
(-64.9%)

CEI

Ice days

10.3 days

Large Decrease
(-44.8%)

Large Decrease
(-50.3%)

Large Decrease
(-65.6%)

Large Decrease
(-82.5%)

CEI

Mean precipitation

An increase is projected in mean annual precipitation. These changes may be taken carefully due to the model bias.

Table 22 projected mean precipitation change

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Historical

2030 | 2.6 change

2030 | 8.5 change

2050 | 2.6 change

2050 | 8.5 change

Source

Precipitation (bc)

410.0 mm yr-1

Increase
(9.4%)

Large Increase
(11.1%)

Large Increase
(12.2%)

Increase
(8.2%)

CMIP6

Floods and landslides

All CIDs associated with flood and landslide hazards are projected to increase for 2030 period and largely increase 2050 time period.

As stated in the baseline, the facility is located in an area with current flooding risk.

Table 23 projected flood and landslide CIDs change

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Historical

2030 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2030 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

2050 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2050 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

Source

Heavy precipitation days

25.5 days

No Change
(2.9%)

Increase
(8.2%)

Increase
(8.9%)

Increase
(6.3%)

CEI

Maximum 1 day precipitation

66.1 mm

Increase
(7.0%)

Increase
(8.1%)

Increase
(9.3%)

Large Increase
(21.0%)

CEI

Maximum 5 day precipitation

157.5 mm

Large Increase
(11.5%)

Increase
(8.6%)

Large Increase
(17.4%)

Large Increase
(17.0%)

CEI

Very heavy precipitation days

13.8 days

Large Increase
(12.3%)

Large Increase
(12.0%)

Large Increase
(15.6%)

Increase
(8.4%)

CEI

Aridity

In the mid-term, a moderate decrease in related CIDs are projected in aridity. In the long-term, aridity presents also some decrease.

Table 24 projected aridity CIDs change

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Historical

2030 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2030 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

2050 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2050 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

Source

Aridity index

0.5 [-]

Decrease
(-9.5%)

No Change
(-3.7%)

Large Decrease
(-12.6%)

Decrease
(-9.2%)

CMIP6

Consecutive dry days

78.2 days

Large Decrease
(-11.6%)

Large Decrease
(-15.7%)

No Change
(-0.7%)

No Change
(2.1%)

CEI

Drought

A decrease are projected in drought at the mid-term. At the long-term, no change drought hazard is projected.

Table 25 projected drought CIDs change

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Historical

2030 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2030 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

2050 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2050 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

Source

Consecutive dry days

78.2 days

Large Decrease
(-11.6%)

Large Decrease
(-15.7%)

No Change
(-0.7%)

No Change
(2.1%)

CEI

Number of wet days

59.8 days

No Change
(4.2%)

No Change
(4.6%)

No Change
(2.1%)

No Change
(-0.7%)

CEI

Wildfire

No decrease in wildfire hazard is projected for both scenarios at the mid-term and long term, mainly by the decrease of the near surface wind speed.

Table 26 projected wildfire CIDs change

Climate Impact-Driver (chart link)

Historical

2030 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2030 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

2050 | 2.6 - impact on hazard

2050 | 8.5 - impact on hazard

Source

Consecutive dry days

78.2 days

Large Decrease
(-11.6%)

Large Decrease
(-15.7%)

No Change
(-0.7%)

No Change
(2.1%)

CEI

Near surface wind speed

2.2 m s-1

No Change
(-0.1%)

No Change
(-0.5%)

No Change
(0.3%)

No Change
(0.2%)

CMIP6

Number of wet days

59.8 days

No Change
(4.2%)

No Change
(4.6%)

No Change
(2.1%)

No Change
(-0.7%)

CEI

Coastal flood

Located at an altitude of 570 above sea level, no coastal flooding risk is projected in the future.

Conclusions

This section summarizes the climate-related physical hazards at the Santiago de Chile facility. The projected future evolution of the hazards is graded between a large decrease to a large increase in the hazard. Some of the hazards are non relevant for a site. In Santiago de Chile the coastal flood can be disregarded.

Santiago de Chile is projected to suffer a large increase in mean temperature. This variation leads to a increase in potential physical risk associated with extreme heat events. However, this extreme heat hazard increase may not have very significant impacts considering the baseline climate conditions of Santiago de Chile (not base high temperatures). The cold spells and frosts hazard events are projected to decrease largely..

The mean annual precipitation is projected to increase. It will change, however, how this precipitation will fall. The maximum 1 and 5 days precipitation and very heavy precipitations are projected to increase largely leading to an increase in flood and landslide hazards. The number of consecutive dry days is projected to decrease in the mid-term, leading to a projected decrease of aridity, drought and wildfire in that period.

Table 28 Summary of acute climate hazards change for 2030 and 2050

Hazard

2030 | 2.6 - Estimated Physical Risk Change

2030 | 8.5 - Estimated Physical Risk Change

2050 | 2.6 - Estimated Physical Risk Change

2050 | 8.5 - Estimated Physical Risk Change

Extreme heat

Increase

Increase

Increase

Increase

Cold spell and frost

Large Decrease

Large Decrease

Large Decrease

Large Decrease

Floods

Increase

Increase

Large Increase

Large Increase

Landslide

Increase

Increase

Large Increase

Large Increase

Aridity

Large Decrease

Decrease

Decrease

Decrease

Drought

Decrease

Decrease

No Change

No Change

Wildfire

Decrease

Decrease

No Change

No Change

Coastal flood

No Relevant

No Relevant

No Relevant

No Relevant

Wind

No Change

No Change

No Change

No Change